Insights That Move
India's Steel Trade

Indian Railways approved $13 million to double Odisha’s Barbil-Bolanikhandan rail line, adding 8.9 million tonnes of annual iron ore capacity, reducing freight delays and improving connectivity between mines, steel plants and ports.

SAIL may increase steel prices by about ₹1,000 per tonne in coming weeks, covering flat and long products, as input costs rise and demand strengthens after monsoon, following a recent flat-product hike.

Analysts expect Indian steel prices to climb further in the coming weeks as post-monsoon demand from infrastructure and automotive sectors tightens the market while coking coal costs, which surged 29% in one month to $274/t, continue to pressure mill margins. HR coil is trading at ₹54,800-60,450/MT and TMT bars at ₹51,600-56,300/MT across India, with the government's sustained capex push under the FY27 budget supporting firm pricing.

Jindal Stainless has integrated SAP Ariba Supplier Risk with ESG risk capabilities into its procurement ecosystem, transitioning from manual assessments to continuous digital monitoring of supplier risks. The platform enables risk classification, ESG scoring, and audit-ready compliance across the supplier lifecycle. The company, with FY26 turnover of ₹42,955 crore and 4.2 MT annual melt capacity, will also conduct training workshops for MSME suppliers.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange surged to a record high of $14,617 per tonne, driven by tightening global supply, US tariff concerns, and strong demand from data centres and renewable energy projects. In India, MCX copper futures touched ₹1,403.50/kg while Hindustan Copper shares rallied 3.6% to ₹527.25. Global copper mine output fell nearly 1% in H1 2026, with concentrate production declining 2.6%.

State-owned NMDC has increased lump iron ore prices by ₹150 per tonne to ₹5,400/t (65.5% Fe, 10-40mm), effective September 9, 2026, marking a 2.9% increase from the previous rate of ₹5,250/t set on August 8. Iron ore fines remain unchanged at ₹4,500/t. The hike comes amid tighter domestic iron ore availability due to monsoon-related mining disruptions and improved steel market sentiment.

India's imported stainless steel scrap market has strengthened in the first week of September as worsening shipping constraints and steady demand from 300-series producers push offers higher. India's stainless scrap imports rose 7% in FY26 to 1.4 million tonnes, with rolled stainless production climbing 12% YoY to approximately 4.44 million tonnes.

Fitch Ratings warned on September 1 that higher steel imports remain the primary risk to Indian steelmakers' margins, even as the 11.5% safeguard duty on flat steel is in effect. India was a net importer of finished steel between April and July FY27, with imports rising 36.6% YoY and China accounting for 31% of total inbound shipments.

Imported ferrous scrap prices into India have begun firming in early September as rising freight costs lift landed values, according to Kallanish. Containerised HMS offers from Mozambique are heard around $380/MT CFR Nhava Sheva, though domestic buyers continue to bid lower at $372-375/MT amid competition from cheaper sponge iron alternatives.

MCX copper futures jumped 1.75% to ₹1,411 per kg on September 8, now up 45% year-on-year. The rally is underpinned by a global refined copper deficit, with Congo imposing an export ban, Chile's output falling 9.4% YoY in July due to El Niño disruptions, and China's refined copper production declining 3% to 1.1 million tonnes in June.

LME zinc prices crossed the $4,000 per tonne mark on September 8, rising 7.2% over the past month and nearly 40% year-on-year. The rally is driven by a deepening mine supply deficit, with global zinc mine output shrinking 2.6% in H1 2026 following major production setbacks at Glencore and Boliden operations, while LME warehouse stocks have plunged 82% year-on-year.

NALCO has laid out an ambitious ₹30,000 crore multi-phase expansion plan centred on its integrated aluminium operations in Odisha. The 1 MTPA 5th stream alumina refinery at Damanjodi, which began pre-commissioning in June, is now targeting mechanical completion by September end after a 2-3 month slip, with production ramp-up expected over the following 3-4 months. Capital expenditure guidance stands at ₹1,500-1,800 crore for FY27, rising to ₹6,000-7,000 crore by FY30.

JSW Steel has selected ANDRITZ to supply a continuous galvanizing line at its Toranagallu plant in Karnataka, capable of producing 500,000 tonnes per year of advanced high-strength steel with tensile strengths up to 1,480 MPa for automotive applications. The line, designed for speeds up to 180 metres per minute on strip widths up to 1,900 mm, is scheduled to start up in 2028 and will bolster JSW's value-added portfolio amid rising demand from automakers for lightweight, high-strength steel.

SAIL reduced its borrowings by ₹870 crore compared to its March 2026 position while achieving record August cash collections that grew 23% year-on-year. The state-owned steelmaker also posted its best-ever August sales in cold-rolled, galvanised, and alloy steel categories, and increased long rail supplies to Indian Railways to an all-time monthly high of 1.12 lakh tonnes.

India is considering raising the safeguard duty on flat steel imports from the current 11.5% to as high as 24%, as the country remains a net importer of finished steel for the second consecutive year with imports approaching 10 million tonnes. The potential hike targets cheap shipments primarily from China and Vietnam and would significantly strengthen protection for domestic producers including JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and SAIL.

Alternative fuel vehicles crossed a milestone in August 2026, with CNG, hybrid and electric vehicles together capturing 41.95% of India's passenger vehicle retail sales, surpassing petrol's 40.85% share for the first time, according to FADA. EV penetration reached 7.63%, up from 5.83% a year ago, while CNG rose to 25.28%, signalling a structural shift in automotive steel demand toward lighter, speciality-grade materials.

India's steel exports jumped 27% year-on-year to 4.63 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, driven by a dramatic shift in trade flows. Shipments to Vietnam rocketed from a negligible 0.01 MT to 0.65 MT, while exports to the European Union fell 19.8% to 1.01 MT, reflecting the emerging impact of CBAM-related cost pressures on India-EU steel trade.

Coking coal shipments through Indian ports rose 10% year-on-year during April-August FY 2026-27, underscoring the steel sector's growing dependence on imported raw materials as domestic production capacity expands. The sustained increase in import volumes comes even as coking coal prices have surged 29% in the past month to around $274 per tonne, putting pressure on steelmaker margins.

India's aggregate crude steel production rose 4% year-on-year to 23.87 lakh tonnes in August 2026, reflecting sustained capacity expansion by both public and private sector producers. The growth was broad-based, with JSW Steel reporting a 3% rise and SAIL posting an 8% increase in output during the month, keeping overall capacity utilisation healthy ahead of the post-monsoon demand upturn.

JSW Steel reported a 113% year-on-year jump in consolidated net profit to ₹4,651 crore for Q1 FY27, driven by improved price realizations and strong domestic demand. Indian operations ran at 94% capacity utilization excluding the Vijayanagar BF-3 upgrade, with value-added and special products comprising 61% of sales and record quarterly dispatches to the automotive and renewables segments.

India's finished steel production reached 160.9 MT in FY 2025-26, crossing the 160 MT mark for the first time and recording 9.7% growth over the previous year. Consumption kept pace at 163.7 MT, up 7.6% YoY, while sponge iron output posted a strong 9.1% increase during the April-September period, reflecting growing secondary steelmaking capacity.

India's ministry of mines has issued notices to SAIL and Odisha Mining Corporation directing them to submit plans for raising iron ore output by October and demonstrate steady month-on-month growth thereafter. If the companies fail to comply, the government may re-allocate their mines through auctions, hand leases to other state-run firms, or impose an export tax on ore.

The global aluminium market deficit has widened sharply from an earlier estimate of 0.3 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes for calendar year 2026, according to Hindalco Industries MD Satish Pai. Production halts at smelters in Bahrain and the UAE following geopolitical disruptions have tightened supply, while China's 45 MTPA capacity cap limits any offsetting ramp-up, supporting prices near multi-year highs.

The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly three times the 56,000 forecast and the strongest gain in five months, shifting sentiment on the Federal Reserve's September rate decision. The stronger-than-expected data may temper dollar weakness that had been supporting base metal and steel-stock rallies in India earlier this week.

MCX copper futures extended their rally for a fourth straight session on September 5, climbing 0.62% to ₹1,379 per kg. The sustained advance reflects persistent global refined copper deficit conditions, even as prices pulled back from the record high of $6.7 per pound touched on August 25.

India's total ferrous scrap consumption — domestic generation plus net imports — is projected to touch approximately 45 million tonnes in FY26, driven by expanding EAF capacity and rising induction furnace output. Domestic scrap generation has surged 22% while imports have declined 20%, signalling growing self-sufficiency in the secondary steel feedstock chain.

India's finished steel consumption reached 55.9 million tonnes between April and July 2026, registering a robust 7.8% increase over the same period last year. July alone saw consumption of 14.4 MT, up 6.5% year-on-year, reflecting sustained infrastructure and housing demand despite the ongoing monsoon season.

Long steel prices in India have recovered approximately 12% over the past month, reversing the downturn seen during the early monsoon. Kotak Institutional Equities projects domestic steel capacity utilisation will sustain above 90% over the medium term, with demand growing at roughly 7% CAGR through FY29, outpacing capacity additions and supporting further price firmness as the post-monsoon construction season begins.

India's stainless steel scrap imports grew 7% year-on-year to 1.4 million tonnes in FY 2025-26, driven by stronger demand for 300-series grades. While the US remained the largest supplier at 0.91 MT, Vietnamese shipments surged 75% to 0.18 MT as Indian buyers diversified sourcing across ASEAN to secure competitive prices amid volatile global markets.

Delhi non-ferrous scrap rates on September 4 show copper armature steady at ₹1,404/kg, CC rod at ₹1,540/kg, brass purja at ₹930/kg, aluminium wire scrap above ₹335/kg, and zinc dhada at ₹350/kg. Copper and aluminium are trending upward on global supply tightness while nickel moves lower on subdued stainless steel demand.